
The Kentucky Derby is in our rear view mirror, and once again the racing community looks forward to the second jewel of the sport's triple crown, the Preakness Stakes. I hope some of you took my advice and played I'll Have Another in the Derby...and maybe didn't take my advice on some of the other horses. All in all, I felt good with my picks. The Derby is unlike any other race, there are traffic issues and obstacles that these horses will never face again during the entirety of their careers. My top pick, Union Rags, got unlucky once again and was fenced in early, only able to get up for seventh. Gemologist, my other pick along with I'll Have Another, finished a distant 16th but was found to have suffered a foot bruise that most likely hindered his ability to run. Bodemeister truly shocked me. As the pace scenario unfolded, I was certain the race was setting up the way I had predicted. Bodemeister, Hansen, and Trinniberg were running blistering fractions (21.5 opening quarter...scary), and the rest of the field was stalking. Trinniberg and Hansen fell off, but Bodemeister held on to grab place. Dullahan also surprised me a bit. Not that he was running at the end, but that he was able to get up for show. Overall a fantastic Derby and an intriguing setup for tomorrow's Preakness.
First off, who won't be there. Dale Romans has decided to rest Dullahan and point towards the Belmont, in hopes that the longer distance will suit his late runner better than the Preakness. Union Rags will also be pointed towards the Belmont, where a clean trip is easier to come by, and the mile and a half can cure most starting gate ills. Hansen will also miss the Preakness (as well as the Belmont), as his connections have finally come to the realization that he is miler, not a route runner. The field for the Preakness remains strong, with eleven horses entered, including six Derby starters. Those are Went the Day Well (impressive 4th place finish), Creative Cause (5th), Bodemeister (2nd), Daddy Nose Best (10th), Optimizer (11th), and of course Derby winner I'll Have Another. They join newcomers Tiger Walk (4th in the Wood Memorial), Teeth of the Dog (3rd Wood Memorial), Pretension (1st Canonero II), Zhttp://www.kentuckysports.co/index.php?option=com_easyblog&view=dashboard&layout=write&Itemid=2etterholm (1st NY-bred Stakes), and Romans-trained Cozzetti (4th in the Arkansas Derby).
I'll go ahead and start off by saying that I believe the best horses in this field are the entries who also ran in the Derby. Prevailing logic will tell you that the best three year olds in the country were all in that race, and very seldom does a horse win the Preakness that did not start in the Derby. That being said, its not unheard of, but in recent years it has taken a special horse with a legitimate reason to not have run the Derby to pull it off (see: Rachel Alexandra). I'll narrow my analysis to whom I consider the contenders.
Bodemeister: I am still incredibly impressed that this horse was able to stay up for place after such a fast start at Churchill. The main difference between that race and the Preakness will be the lack of fellow early speed to push Bodemeister's pace. This would seem like a pretty big advantage on the surface, and there is a very real possibility that if the field allows Bodemeister to set and keep his own pace, he'll run away it. The word is that he has trained very well for Bob Baffert since the Derby. It would appear there is nothing not to like about this horse going into Pimlico, but I have this feeling that that effort in the 1 1/4 mile KY Derby had to take a lot out of him, and when Mike Smith comes asking down the stretch, there won't be enough in the tank do take the Black Eyed Susans.
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